Super El Nino could bring record heat in summer, fall

A developing El Nino pattern that could intensify into a “super El Nino” may push temperatures in Türkiye to record levels starting in late July and continuing into the fall, a leading climate expert said.

Levent Kurnaz, director of the Climate Change and Policy Research Center at Bogazici University, said temperatures are likely to rank among the three warmest years on record through the first half of summer before rising further later in the season.

"Until around the end of July, we expect temperatures to remain within the top three warmest years. But after that, we will begin to see record-breaking heat," Kurnaz said. "By late July, this is expected to become the warmest year on record without question."

Data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service show global average surface air temperatures have remained above long-term averages in recent months, continuing a broader warming trend.

December 2025 ranked as the fifth warmest December on record, while January and February 2026 were also among the five warmest for those months. March 2026 ranked as the fourth warmest March recorded.

Kurnaz said the past winter in Türkiye brought neither sufficient rainfall nor particularly low temperatures, with limited snowfall in Istanbul — a pattern that has become more frequent over roughly the past 15 years.

Although rainfall increased in March across parts of the region, including drought-affected areas of Iran, reservoir levels in Türkiye have not fully recovered compared with previous years.

Temperatures began rising again in March and are now trending above both recent averages and those of the past two decades, he said.

Looking ahead, Kurnaz warned that the anticipated El Nino event could significantly amplify heat if it strengthens into a super El Nino.

"The question is no longer whether El Nino will occur, but whether it will become a super El Nino," he said. "That would mean temperatures in Türkiye, especially in September and October, could rise well above normal."

While early summer conditions may remain relatively manageable, he said late summer and early fall could bring more intense and prolonged heat.

The effects of climate change are considered one of the biggest threats facing humanity today, according to many studies and scientific bodies.