Ayhan Simsek
06 September 2026•Update: 07 September 2026
Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is projected to win Sunday’s state election in Saxony-Anhalt with a record 44% of the vote, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union is set to slump to a historic low of 17.4%, according to projections with nearly 97% of the ballots counted.
The remaining votes are not expected to change the outcome. The AfD would more than double its 20.8% result from 2021 and post its strongest showing in any German state election. Projections show the party falling short of a majority in the 83-seat parliament in Magdeburg and unable to govern alone. With all other major parties ruling out a coalition with the AfD, the result pointed to political uncertainty and long talks on forming a government.
“We have achieved exactly what we set out to achieve. We have made history in this country,” AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund told public television.
He said cooperation was possible “only with those who support the AfD’s demand for a clear change in policy,” whether that came “through a parliamentary group or through individual deputies.” Asked what would happen if no partner emerged, he said: “If necessary, there will just be new elections.”
The Social Democrats (SPD) were projected to finish third with 9.2%, one of their weakest showings in the eastern state. The Greens followed with 8.9% and the socialist Left Party with 8.6%. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) was seen passing the 5% threshold with 5.1%, which would put it in the new parliament. The Free Democrats, junior partners in the outgoing government, were projected to miss the threshold with 2.5%.
On that projection, the AfD would win 39 of 83 seats, three short of the 42 needed for an outright majority, public broadcaster ARD reported. Merz’s CDU would take 15 seats, down from 40 in 2021. The Greens and the Social Democrats would receive eight seats each, the Left Party eight and the BSW five.
The numbers offer no clear path to a governing majority. A coalition of the CDU, SPD and Greens would hold 31 seats. Adding the Left Party would lift that bloc to 39, still short of 42. The AfD could reach a majority only with BSW support. The BSW could back an AfD candidate, support a CDU-backed contender or abstain. In a third ballot for state premier, only a plurality is required. Talks on forming a government are expected to begin in the coming days.
Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the BfV, has classified the AfD’s regional branches as proven right-wing extremist organizations, saying parts of the party promote a racist and ethnic understanding of national identity incompatible with Germany’s democratic constitutional order. Mainstream parties have cited that assessment in maintaining a refusal to govern with the AfD.
