Climate change could cost Greece’s agriculture up to $1.2B annually: Study

Climate change could significantly reshape Greece’s agricultural landscape in the coming decades, causing major production losses and economic damage, while forcing changes in farming practices, according to a study cited by the Greek daily Ekathimerini on Wednesday.

Researchers estimate that climate change could reduce the value of Greece’s primary agricultural production by as much as €1 billion ($1.16 billion) annually within the next three decades, with Thessaly and Central Macedonia among the regions expected to be hardest hit.

The study estimates that, including the average effect of extreme weather events, direct losses in plant and livestock production could reach €437 million ($507 million) to €643 million annually between 2021 and 2040.

Under the most severe climate scenario, annual losses are projected to rise to between €579 million and more than €1 billion from 2041 to 2060.

“If this amount seems large, it is enough to consider that the damage in Thessaly from Daniel in 2023 exceeded €2 billion ($2.32 billion),” said researchers, referring to the severe storm that struck the region in September 2023.

The projected effects are expected to vary significantly across the country.

Thessaly, Central Macedonia, Central Greece, Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, the Peloponnese and Crete are expected to account for 78% of the decline in agricultural production, 79% of GDP losses and 79% of employment losses.

Tree crops are expected to be particularly vulnerable, with olive production projected to face significant declines, especially after 2041.

Researchers said insufficient winter chilling could affect flowering and fruit set in olive trees, while higher temperatures and increased water stress could further reduce productivity.

Other crops expected to be affected include apples, pears, nuts, vineyards and vegetables harvested during the summer.

Citrus production could also decline as temperatures rise, although reduced frost damage could offset some of the losses.

Peaches and cherries, meanwhile, could benefit from fewer frost-related losses, according to the study.

The researchers recommended a range of adaptation measures, including earlier sowing dates, expanded irrigation, heat-tolerant crop varieties and changes in soil management.

They said, however, no single adaptation strategy would be suitable for all regions, calling instead for agricultural policies tailored to local and regional conditions.

The study comes as Greece’s agricultural sector faces growing pressure from heat, drought and extreme weather, with recent conditions already affecting crops including olives, grapes and vegetables.