- Iran seeks easing of naval blockade before talks, while US wants concessions first, says Ali Vaez of International Crisis Group
- Both sides seek to avoid prolonged war, says Iranian analyst Mohammad Khatibi
- Risk of escalation remains as Trump could lose patience with prolonged diplomacy, says Ryan Bohl of RANE
Two months into the Iran war, Tehran and Washington remain locked in a fragile standoff, with diplomacy struggling to gain traction amid unresolved disputes over maritime security and Iran’s nuclear program.
Despite a tentative truce following weeks of fighting, analysts say neither side appears eager to return to full-scale war – but neither has agreed on clear terms for de-escalation.
"Decades of hostility – spanning 47 years – cannot be resolved in one or two rounds of direct talks," Mohammad Khatibi, an Iranian political and foreign policy analyst, told Anadolu.
The conflict began with a joint US-Israeli offensive against Iran in late February and quickly escalated into a wider regional confrontation, with Tehran responding through missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, US bases and allied infrastructure.
A ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 and later extended by US President Donald Trump has largely held, but negotiations to end the conflict have stalled, while tensions continue to disrupt maritime traffic around the Strait of Hormuz.
Efforts are underway to organize another round of talks, but key sticking points include the Strait of Hormuz, the US blockade of Iranian ports and the future of Iran's nuclear program.
Ali Vaez, International Crisis Group's Iran project director, said sequencing is at the core of the deadlock.
"Iran wants visible easing of the naval blockade before meaningful negotiations, while the US wants Iran back at the table – and preferably making concessions – before it relaxes pressure," he told Anadolu.
"Tehran’s red line is negotiating under duress; Washington’s hope is pressure will mollify Iran’s position,” he added.
Khatibi said the nuclear issue remains a major obstacle, as Iran refuses to give up its enriched uranium and continues to assert its right to enrichment.
"It may be willing to offer concessions to Trump, but not at the expense of its core national interests,” he said, adding that earlier diplomatic efforts collapsed when Washington opted for military action.
Hormuz proposal emerges
Iran has imposed restrictions on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while the US has enforced a naval blockade on Iran.
Iran’s latest proposal involves reopening the vital shipping lane and de-escalating the conflict, while postponing nuclear negotiations, according to media reports.
"Iran is offering a way to restore maritime stability without first accepting US demands on the nuclear file,” Vaez said, adding that its success depends on whether Washington treats it as a confidence-building step rather than a concession.
Ryan Bohl, a Middle East and North Africa analyst at RANE, said the proposal could represent a practical first step toward de-escalation.
However, US media reported late Monday that Trump is dissatisfied with Iran’s latest offer.
At the same time, Khatibi said that Washington’s naval blockade reflects a broader US strategy of coercion rather than direct conflict.
Iran's diplomatic push
Tehran has intensified outreach to regional powers, with recent contacts involving Pakistan, Egypt, Türkiye and Qatar, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has visited Oman, Russia and Pakistan.
Analysts say Iran is attempting to raise the regional cost of renewed conflict
"Iran appears to be trying to convince neighboring countries and partners that any new war would be broader and more destructive, with additional targets in play," Khatibi said, adding that the aim is to encourage regional actors to press Washington to avoid further conflict.
He also noted that parallel diplomatic tracks appear to be emerging.
"Issues related to the Strait of Hormuz seem to be handled through Oman, while nuclear discussions are linked to Russia," he said, adding that the surge in diplomacy may represent a final effort to prevent renewed escalation.
Vaez said Oman and Pakistan have become key intermediaries with Washington, while outreach to other countries helps Tehran demonstrate it is not isolated.
Bohl believes Iran is trying to reshape the diplomatic landscape and “peel apart the pro-US camp.”
"First is they're trying to find new facilitators and mediators that can get convincing messages to the Americans, to get the Americans to climb down from this whole ‘grand bargain in a weekend’ approach."
He said Pakistan remains a key defense partner for Saudi Arabia, so Iran is engaging with Islamabad to keep it neutral and avoid it becoming more actively aligned with the Saudis if the war resumes.
"They are also going to the Russians because the Russians are a key defense partner,” he said. “They need the Shahed drones coming out of Russia. They need missiles coming out of Russia. So they need to know the Russians will still back them in the case the war restarts."
Risk of return to war
Vaez said the more immediate risk is not a deliberate march back to full-scale war, but instead escalation by incident, especially at sea.
"A US interdiction, Iranian action against commercial shipping, or developments in Lebanon could force both sides into choices that make the ceasefire increasingly nominal and war increasingly difficult to avoid,” said Vaez.
At the same time, both Washington and Tehran have strong incentives to avoid another large-scale conflict.
"For Washington, renewed large-scale conflict in the region would carry major economic, political, and military costs,” Khatibi said. “For Tehran, a prolonged war could strain its economy and infrastructure.”
Israel’s role could also shape the trajectory, he added.
"Tel Aviv views the present moment as strategically favorable – opportunity to further weaken Iran’s regional capabilities and deterrence,” he said. “Meanwhile, the United States may prefer a more measured approach, focusing on deterrence and containment rather than direct, large-scale engagement."
In such a scenario, Khatibi said Israel could take on a more active operational role, effectively carrying out actions that Washington is less willing to pursue openly.
Bohl said the situation could drift toward a prolonged maritime standoff rather than immediate escalation.
"I don't think the Iranians are well incentivized to strike first in a military scenario. Instead they're going to try to drag this out,” he said.
However, he warned that if Trump loses patience with prolonged diplomacy, he could escalate military pressure in the hopes of forcing a quicker deal.
"We are now over two months in, and deliveries have not been made, supplies have been disrupted, but markets can still assume that eventually that'll come back online,” he said.
A return to full-scale war, he said, would increase the odds of an economic crisis.
"If supply destruction begins to happen in a restarted war, that's going to cause a lot more panic because markets know that this oil and gas that's being taken offline won't be back for months if not years.”
