Netanyahu bloc projected to win 51 seats in Oct. 27 elections, opposition 53: Poll

Israeli opposition parties would win 53 seats against 51 for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc, said an opinion poll published Friday, less than a month before the Oct. 27 general election.

The survey published by daily Maariv also projected 12 seats for Arab parties and four for the Reservists party led by Yoaz Hendel.

Under the projections, neither Netanyahu’s camp nor the opposition would reach the 61-seat majority needed to form a government in the 120-member Knesset or parliament.

Most opposition leaders say they will not rely on Arab parties’ support to form a government, leaving prospects for a governing coalition uncertain.

Maariv said Netanyahu’s bloc gained two seats compared with the previous survey, while the opposition lost two, narrowing the gap between the camps to two seats.

Within Netanyahu’s camp, his Likud party was projected to win 19 seats, followed by extremist National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power with nine.

The ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism would each secure seven seats, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism would take five and Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party four.

Among opposition parties, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar would win 21 seats, Naftali Bennett’s Together 13, Yair Golan’s Democrats 10, and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu nine.

The Joint List, led by Yousef Jabareen, was projected to secure seven seats, while Mansour Abbas’s United Arab List would take five.

On the poll’s questions on suitability for prime minister, Eisenkot led Netanyahu by 47% to 41%, with the gap narrowing to six percentage points.

Bennett led Netanyahu by 45% to 41%, while Netanyahu led Lieberman 44% to 39%.

Israel’s prime minister is not directly elected. Forming a government depends on securing sufficient parliamentary support.

The poll also found that 67% of Israelis expressed concern about the possibility of a security incident on the scale of the Oct. 7, 2023 attack.

Of those surveyed, 43% were moderately concerned and 24% very concerned. Another 26% were not concerned, while 7% were undecided.

Lazar Research conducted the survey among 602 Israeli adults. Its margin of error was four percentage points.​​​​​​​