M. Erkut Ayvaz is research director at the Berlin office of the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), a Turkish-based think tank.
On Sept. 6, a major state parliamentary election took place in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt. Voter turnout jumped from 60.3% in 2021 to a record high of 77.8%. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, classified by the Saxony-Anhalt state office for the German intelligence agency the BND as a “confirmed far-right organization,” finished first in the election by a significant margin, with a record 43.8% of the vote, according to preliminary official results. [1] The AfD has managed to outpace other political parties with its rhetoric, which capitalizes on social discontent, and its extreme policy promises. Meanwhile, Saxony-Anhalt's incumbent state premier from Germany’s ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the three-party state government suffered a major setback. The CDU lost roughly half of its vote share from the 2021 state election, dropping to 17.2% to finish in second place. Among the coalition parties, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) secured 9.3% of the vote, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) failed to clear the 5% electoral threshold. The Left Party got 8.6% and the Greens 8.9%. With 5.3% of the vote, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has likely emerged as a key player in the government formation process. Although the BSW has rejected cooperation with the AfD, it may take a more neutral stance, particularly during the state premier election process. This stance could lead to an AfD member becoming state premier for the first time in a potential round three of the state parliament’s election for state premier.
The Saxony-Anhalt state parliament has 83 seats, so at least 42 seats are needed to secure an absolute majority. Although the AfD finished first in the election with a significant margin, it was unable to secure an absolute majority on its own with 39 seats. In the run-up to the election, the AfD leadership in Saxony-Anhalt indicated that it was not open to the idea of forming a government without an absolute majority. On the other hand, the fact that the party’s federal leadership holds a more flexible view and claims that the authority to form a government lies with them could complicate the process.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s party, the CDU, along with other parties, continues to adhere to the principle of not cooperating with the AfD at both the federal and state levels. Although state-level party organizations have occasionally taken a more moderate approach, a shift toward cooperation with the AfD is not widely expected. On the other hand, the sustainability of the CDU’s principle of non-cooperation with the AfD—often described as a “firewall”—is also being questioned. In principle, it is mathematically possible for the five parties in the state parliament to come together to form a majority against the AfD and form a government. However, two potential obstacles stand in the way of such a scenario. First, it must be borne in mind that it would be extremely difficult for the CDU to cooperate with the Left Party. Moreover, the BSW has stated that it will not support the incumbent CDU state premier and is proposing a non-partisan figure for the post. In the coming days and weeks, other, more complex and challenging options may also come into play. For example, from the perspective of parliamentary arithmetic, there is the possibility of five parties joining forces against the AfD to form a coalition government, the Left Party and the BSW supporting a minority government, or even the BSW tolerating a minority government that includes the AfD.
The AfD’s latest success is likely to have an impact on the state elections scheduled for Sept. 20 in the states of Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. As for its short- and medium-term effects on federal politics, the parties face challenging times in the coming days and weeks. Calls for revisions to current policy priorities and personnel changes may come to the forefront. As SPD Co-Chair Lars Klingbeil said, the way the results serve as a “signal to Berlin” [2] could open up debate over the Merz government’s legislative plans, particularly for pension reform. It should also be remembered that the three CDU state premiers in eastern Germany have previously opposed this reform.
Merz’s position is not, for now, being called into question by his party. Moreover, it is, for now, unlikely that alternative candidates will seek to step forward given the current stage and dynamics of the situation. However, it can be said that Merz, whose popularity in the polls has fallen significantly, is being directly linked to the failure in the state legislative election. It should be noted that as the chancellor made headlines for a number of negative incidents over the summer, he was not prominently featured in the election campaign in Saxony-Anhalt. It is also likely that criticism of the federal leadership of the coalition partner, the SPD, and calls for leadership changes will grow louder.
Ultimately, the state parliament election in Saxony-Anhalt is expected to have significant and lasting effects on German politics. These results, which could be characterized as a political crisis, will also have significant implications for federal politics. Saxony-Anhalt lags far behind other states in terms of economic size. Furthermore, it represents only about 2.5% of the country’s population. Nevertheless, it is possible to identify specific and realistic examples of how a potential AfD state premier could influence federal politics, including security and foreign policy.
Although the AfD, classified as a “confirmed far-right organization” by the Saxony-Anhalt office of the German intel agency the BND, secured 39 of the 83 seats in the state parliament, it did not capture an absolute majority on its own. The principle adopted by the five other parties that surpassed the 5% electoral threshold to refuse cooperation with the AfD signals the start of a particularly challenging process in the state. The stance taken by the BSW is expected to play a critical role in determining the new state premier. If the BSW provides direct or indirect support to the AfD, the AfD’s lead candidate could be elected state premier in a potential third round of the state parliament’s election for premier.
On the other hand, provided they can reach an agreement among themselves, it is also possible for a CDU state premier to be elected if the CDU, SPD, Greens, Left Party, and BSW can find common ground. However, aside from the fact that the CDU has suffered such a critical and serious election defeat, it should not be forgotten that it has continued to adhere to its principle of not cooperating with the Left Party. Although some politicians have sent more conciliatory messages on this issue, the CDU’s uncompromising stance prior to the election could further complicate the process in the days ahead. Furthermore, Merz made notable statements opposing cooperation with the Left Party during the election campaign. Consequently, any potential concessions made to the Left Party and the BSW in the coming days could further erode the CDU’s credibility in the eyes of the public. It will also become clear in the coming days in what form these five parties, including the BSW, despite their differing policy preferences, can cooperate against the AfD, such as whether they will support a minority government. This state legislative election, viewed as a critical turning point in Germany, marks a new phase in the process of normalizing the AfD. This situation, however, leaves political parties purported to be centrist facing a serious representation problem.
It appears that Chancellor Merz’s promises to curb the AfD failed to resonate in Saxony-Anhalt; on the contrary, the party captured a greater vote share to the point where it neared the threshold for an absolute majority. The fact that the AfD is currently leading the CDU/CSU in national polls will continue to exert significant pressure on Berlin. Consequently, the election results are expected to have serious implications for the future of German politics.
[1] https://wahlergebnisse.sachsen-anhalt.de/wahlen/lt26/erg_land.html?v=1788743252504
[2] https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/spd-fuehrung-will-nach-landtagswahl-korrekturen-am-reformkurs-der-bundesregierung-union-widerspricht-100.html
*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.
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